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Coffee is running out and we're all going to die

Coffee

If you know what strain of bean this is, you're probably already crying. Picture: Ross Swanborough Source: News Limited

LET'S get straight to the point. It's time to start preparing for the day you either can't afford, or worse, can't find ... good coffee.

An alarming piece that popped up on the internets in the past week has office workers wondering how they're ever going to make it through a day in a world without coffee.

Here's the theory: the price is being driven up, the author of the article, Zac Stone, writes and will continue to be driven up until the world's most prized bean will become a luxury item.

Driven up by "weather events, pest and fungus outbreaks, speculation on commodities exchanges, an unstable labor market in the developing world, and an unprecedented thirst for good coffee among a growing global middle class".

"The problem," Stone says, "is that supply has gone down and demand has gone up."

Supply has gone down? If you think that sounds like something to do with global warming, you'd be right.

The plant that produces the prized arabica bean in particular is notoriously fussy, relying on a range of corresponding conditions such as altitude, microclimate and consistent rain/dry spells to produce high quality beans.

Stone reports that those few areas which are suited to growing such beans (read "Colombia") are experiencing record rainfall, heatwaves and pest plagues.

As the climate warms, the devastating "coffee rust" disease is invading the Colombian altitudes best suited to growing arabica, whilst increased heavy rains destroy the blossoms before they can give birth to the beans.

And the mountains are only so high, Stone writes.

The result over the past three years would make any coffee fashionista cry into their cold-pressed - a drop in yields from 12 million bags to 7.8 million.

It's been 33 years since Colombia's produced such a poor result.

Other coffee-producing regions around the world also have their problems, says Stone.

"Global stockpiles are close to record lows," he writes, before casually lobbing in the words nobody ever hoped to hear.

Yes folks, we are approaching "peak coffee".

It could happen as soon as the next drought hits Brazil, agricultural scientists Peter Baker told Stone, as a tolerant, drinkable breed of bean would take at least 10-15 years to produce.

"In the long run, people will have to get used to drinking a bit less coffee,? Baker says.

Stone's fears are borne out in part by a report back in February from a UN commodities catch-up in which the executive director of the International Coffe Organisation was issued with a "please explain" over the rising cost of Arabica.

?The coffee market is being driven much more by fundamental supply factors than by investors," Jose Sette said.

"The shortage is in arabica, and arabica is going up.?

It doesn't bear thinking about, but if you think you can stand it, read more - a lot more - about it in Stone's article The End of Cheap Coffee - Why the Diner Staple is About to become a Luxury.

Source: http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/restaurants-bars/coffee-is-running-out-and-we039re-all-going-to-die/story-fn93ypt9-1226200648591?from=public_rss

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