French President Nicolas Sarkozy delivers a speech to students at Columbia University in New York. Picture: AFP Source: AFP
- Sarkozy likely to come second to Francois Hollande
- On course to face each other head-to-head in May 6 runoff
- Voting got underway on the European mainland today
FRENCH voters headed to the polls today for the first round of a presidential election expected to mark the end of Nicolas Sarkozy's turbulent term in office.
Predictions of a high abstention rate and strong protest vote left the outcome uncertain, but recent opinion polls pointed to the right-wing incumbent coming second to his Socialist challenger, Francois Hollande.
The two 57-year-old political veterans are on course to face each other head-to-head in a May 6 runoff, which will decide who runs what is commonly regarded as the world's fifth greatest power for the next five years.
Polling began on Saturday in France's far-flung overseas territories and got underway on the European mainland at 8am local time today. It was set to continue until 6pm in most of the country and 8pm local time in major cities.
French polling agencies are permitted to take samples directly from ballot boxes, so accurate voting estimates are made public immediately after polls close.
More than 44 million voters are registered, but pollsters predict around 25 per cent will abstain, a high level by the standards of a French presidential poll and a source of worry to the candidates, especially Hollande.
Early turnout figures for the Atlantic island of St Pierre showed voting down six per cent compared to the 2007 race. Voting also was down by about one per cent in Martinique, but it was up two per cent in French Guyana.
In all, 10 candidates are in the race, Hollande and Sarkozy being trailed by far-right flag-bearer Marine Le Pen, hard-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon, veteran centrist Francois Bayrou and a handful of outsiders.
The campaign ran for months but failed to inspire much passion, except for a series of mass open-air rallies by supporters of Melenchon, whose Communist-backed Left Front coalition made a strong breakthrough.
An average of the last eight polls released ahead of the end of the first-round campaign at midnight on Friday showed Hollande winning the first round with an average of 28 per cent support, against 26.4 per cent for Sarkozy.
Le Pen was third with an average of 15.75 per cent, followed by Melenchon with 13.75 per cent and Bayrou with 10.1 per cent.
Opinion polls and campaigning were banned from midnight on Friday and will restart�tomorrow in the buildup to the May 6 runoff, which Hollande is expected to win by around 55 per cent to 45.
Once the first round is over, Sarkozy and Hollande will face each other in a two-week scramble for the line, including a head-to-head televised debate that could be the incumbent's last chance to change his fortunes.
The final two weeks are expected to see some bitter exchanges.
Hollande says Sarkozy has trapped France in a downward spiral of austerity and job losses, while Sarkozy says his rival is inexperienced and weak-willed and would spark panic on financial markets with reckless spending pledges.
Privately, Sarkozy's top supporters have begun to admit that if Sarkozy fails to regain the momentum and slip ahead of Hollande on Sunday, he will have too much ground left to make up before the May 6 showdown.
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